September 2026 Market Update — Sidney / Richland County, Montana

 Eleven Sales in September — While the Rest of the Country Slows Down, Richland County Holds Strong

There's a national conversation happening right now about a buyer slowdown. You've probably heard it. And I want to address it directly — because what's happening in Sidney and Richland County is not the same story playing out in Phoenix or Denver or Portland. Let me show you what the September numbers actually say, and why this market continues to perform in ways that should give local sellers real confidence.

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The September Numbers

In September 2026, eleven homes sold in Richland County with a total sales volume of $3,227,000. The average sale price came in at $293,364 and the median sale price at $310,000.

Compare that to September 2025: five homes sold at a total volume of $1,363,000 and an average sale price of $272,600. Year over year, September 2026 delivered more than double the transaction count — eleven versus five — and $1,864,000 more in total volume. That is a 137% increase in total volume on 120% more transactions. In any market, those are remarkable numbers. In a small market like Richland County in what is traditionally a fall slowdown month, they are exceptional.

Month over month, September built significantly on August. August brought seven sales at a median of $309,000. September delivered eleven sales at a median of $310,000 — four additional transactions with the median holding essentially flat. Volume jumped from $2,132,000 to $3,227,000. That kind of sequential growth this late in the calendar year is not typical — and it deserves acknowledgment.

Context and Interpretation

Here's what it looks like is happening: the average sale price of $293,364 is below the median of $310,000, and below several prior months' averages.

Here's what's actually happening: eleven transactions in a single month introduces more variability than the four-to-seven sale months we've seen earlier in 2026. With a broader range of homes selling — from entry-level to mid-range to upper-tier — the average gets pulled in different directions by the transaction mix. The median of $310,000 is the cleaner signal here, and it has remained remarkably stable. June was $350,000, July $347,000, August $309,000, September $310,000. The market has found a consistent trading range in the $300,000s and it's holding there through the fall.

Twelve new listings entered the market in September. That means sellers continue to have confidence in listing even as the seasonal calendar advances — and with eleven closings absorbing that new supply, the market is keeping pace with incoming inventory. That balance is healthy.

The National Context — And Why Sidney Is Different

I want to speak directly to something. Yes, buyers are slowing down nationally. Mortgage rates at 7.28% are creating real affordability pressure across the country, and markets that saw speculative price appreciation during 2021 and 2022 are feeling that pressure acutely. That is real, and it is happening.

Sidney and Richland County operate differently. Our market is not driven by speculation or remote work migration or investor flipping activity. It is driven by people who live here, work here, and need housing here. The oil and energy sector continues to support employment and household formation in this region. When someone takes a job in the Bakken, they need a place to live in Sidney — and a 7.28% mortgage rate, while not ideal, doesn't change that fundamental equation.

Eleven closings in September — a traditionally slow month — is the evidence. Our market is experiencing a buyer slowdown relative to its own peak, which is normal and seasonal. It is not experiencing the kind of demand collapse that rate-sensitive, speculation-driven markets are seeing elsewhere. That distinction matters for how you interpret any headline you read about national real estate right now.

The Bigger Market Picture

At the end of September, Richland County had 34 total listings — 20 active and 14 under contract. Of those 34 listings, 14 are currently pending. That pending count is strong for this time of year and points to continued closing activity heading into October.

The 30-year rate at 7.28% is the highest we've seen in our 2026 data. I won't minimize that. It affects monthly payments meaningfully and it narrows the qualified buyer pool at the entry level. What I observe locally is that buyers who need to move are still moving — the rate is a headwind, not a wall. And sellers who price with the current rate environment in mind — rather than against 2021 expectations — are finding traction.

What This Means If You're Thinking of Selling

September's numbers carry a clear message for sellers: this market is still transacting at a meaningful pace and at price points that remain significantly above where they were a year ago.

The average sale price is up $20,764 from September 2025. Total volume is up 137%. If you've been watching national real estate headlines and wondering whether Sidney has followed the broader market down — September's data answers that directly. It hasn't.

What I'd encourage sellers to focus on is pricing precision in a higher-rate environment. At 7.28%, every $10,000 in list price affects a buyer's monthly payment in a way that was less consequential at 3% or 4%. Buyers are doing that math carefully right now. The sellers who acknowledge that reality in their pricing strategy are the ones closing. The sellers who price to 2022 expectations are the ones sitting.

Honest pricing in a strong local market is not a concession — it's a strategy. And September's transaction volume proves that strategy is working for sellers in this market right now.

What's Coming

October is historically the last active month in the Richland County market before winter significantly slows activity. With 14 pending transactions already in the pipeline, closings will continue into October regardless of new listing activity. The question for sellers who haven't yet listed is whether they want to enter the market now and capture that remaining fall buyer pool, or wait until spring.

There is no wrong answer — but there is a timing reality. Buyers with year-end motivation are active right now. That pool narrows considerably by November. If listing before year-end is a goal, the window to act is this month.

Ready to Talk?

September proved that the Richland County market is holding its own in a challenging national rate environment. If you want to understand what this market means for your specific situation, I'd welcome that conversation.

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Stasia Creek | Broker/Owner | 406 East Realty | Sidney, Montana | (406) 478-8020