Same Number of Sales as Last October, 18% More Volume — What the Numbers Say Heading Into Winter
October is the month sellers ask me the same question: “Did I miss it?” Summer is behind us, harvest is wrapping up, and winter is coming. The Sidney Montana real estate market doesn’t shut down in the fall, but it does change character. This October’s numbers show a market that is still transacting, at higher price points than a year ago. Here is what I’m seeing and what it means if you’re thinking about selling.
The October Numbers
In October 2026, ten homes sold in Richland County with a total sales volume of $3,576,800. The average sale price was $357,680 and the median sale price was $342,500.
Compare that to October 2025. Ten homes sold then too, with total volume of $3,042,000 and an average price of $304,000. The transaction count is identical, but October 2026 produced $534,800 more in total volume, up about 17.6%. The average sale price is up $53,680, or about 17.7%.
Month over month, October followed a strong September. September had eleven sales, $3,227,000 in volume, and a $310,000 median. October’s ten sales brought $349,800 more in volume, and the median rose $32,500 to $342,500. One fewer sale produced more dollars, which tells me the mix of homes that closed shifted toward higher price points.
Context and Interpretation
Here’s what it looks like is happening: ten sales is one fewer than September, so activity slipped as the calendar moved toward winter.
Here’s what’s actually happening: the count barely moved, and the price level stepped up. Look at the medians across the last several months. June was $350,000 and July $347,000. August dropped to $309,000 and September held at $310,000. October came back to $342,500, nearly matching the summer peak. The mid-range of this market did not erode through the late summer. It dipped on transaction mix and then recovered.
The average of $357,680 sits about $15,000 above the median. That gap tells me a few higher-priced homes lifted the average, which is normal in a market where one or two sales can move the numbers. Anchor to the median for your pricing conversations. It is the more honest read on where the middle of this market closed.
A caution I give every month: ten sales is a small sample. One month of data is a data point, not a trend. What gives me confidence is that October’s year-over-year gain shows up in volume, average, and median together. When all three move the same direction, it is less likely to be a one-sale fluke.
The Bigger Market Picture
At the end of October, Richland County had 34 total listings: 22 active and 12 under contract. That total is the same as September’s 34, but the makeup shifted. Active listings rose from 20 to 22 while homes under contract eased from 14 to 12. Buyers have slightly more to choose from than they did a month ago.
For sellers, that means a bit more competition on the shelf. A listing priced above where the data supports will be easier to pass over than it would have been in July, when under-contract activity was at its peak.
The 30-year mortgage rate was about 7.24% in October, essentially flat from September’s 7.28%. It remains well above where most homeowners locked in their current loans, and it continues to shape what buyers can afford. The buyers who closed in October did so at that rate, with a median price above $340,000. Qualified, motivated buyers are still transacting here.
What This Means If You’re Thinking of Selling
First, don’t assume the fall slowdown means your window has closed. Ten closings in October and 12 homes under contract say buyers are still active.
Second, pricing is the lever you control. With 22 active listings, buyers are comparing. The homes that closed in October were priced to the market’s current level, which was higher than last year’s, but they were priced to the data and not to hope.
Third, don’t price off last year’s sales or the peak of summer. The most useful comparison for your home is what has sold in the last 60 to 90 days in your price range.
Fourth, if your home is in the $300,000 to $400,000 range, October’s median and average both land in that band. That is where the buyers who closed this month were transacting.
What’s Coming
November and December are the quietest months of the year in Eastern Montana. Fewer buyers are looking, showings thin out, and sales are driven by people who have a reason to move now. The 12 homes under contract mean closings will continue into the coming weeks.
Winter is also the best time to prepare for spring. Sellers who sit down with me in November or December can set pricing strategy, complete repairs, and be ready to list the moment the spring buyers return. The sellers who start in March are already behind the ones who planned in the winter.
Ready to Talk?
If you want clarity on what October’s numbers mean for your home specifically, I’d welcome that conversation. Before you make assumptions about timing or price, let’s look at your property against what is actually selling.
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Stasia Creek | Broker/Owner | 406 East Realty | Sidney, Montana | (406) 478-8020
